Printed and Chipless RFID Forecasts, Technologies & Players

New February 2008

Ten year forecasts 2008-2018

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Description

The biggest opportunity for RFID is the item level tagging of all things - demanding trillions of tags yearly. This ultimately calls for a tag costing 0.1 cents and deposited directly onto the item itself, such as by printing. Printed and Chipless RFID technologies have already demonstrated or have the potential to achieve this. Interestingly, few of the biggest chip RFID suppliers are working on these technologies. Instead, printers, packagers and electronics companies are leading development, some seeing the ultra low cost RFID tag as just the beginning - with integrated ultra low cost components such as displays, sensors and power to come. This is the only report to cover the technologies, players, opportunities and challenges of what will be the most widely used RFID technologies. Detailed forecasts are given and global progress assessed.
 
Printed and chipless RFID tags can be electronically interrogated to reveal ID and other data. They do not contain a microchip and therefore can cost much less than chip RFID. From being just 0.8% of the RFID market in 2007 with cumulative sales of 125 million chipless tags to date (compared to 4157 million chip RFID), chipless devices have the potential to grow to 62.3% of the market in 2017. Ultimately, the end game of RFID will be that RFID is almost free, in the same way that barcodes are today, and which are printed onto every item.
 
Printed & Chipless % of all RFID tags
 
Source: IDTechEx
 
There are ten different types of RFID technologies that do not contain a microchip, these work on different principles. Some versions can be fully printed. Some of the biggest names in the business now offer both chip and Chipless RFID in order to cover a full range of user needs. From AstraZeneca to Calvin Klein, companies are already using them in large volumes and many paper and packaging companies have licensed the various processes.
 
Printed and chipless RFID can operate to over 10 meters range and 256 bits of data, can cost one tenth of their silicon chip equivalents and have a greater physical performance. Printed and chipless RFID can be materials based, or it can consist of transistorless circuits. Transparent polymer transistor circuits are now also available from Philips, PolyIC, OrganicID and Motorola among others. These directly mimic the circuit on a chip. All this will means printed and chipless technology is addressing mainstream RFID applications and will rapidly grow the market by price reductions of one to two magnitudes.
 
We also cover radar arrays which operate at 60GHz, offer anticollision and read ranges of up to 300 foot, along with the low frequency, sub 0.001 cent cost printed RFID stripes which have already been sold in 700,000 gaming cards in Germany. All the technologies, players, challenges and opportunities are covered in this comprehensive report.
Forecasts by technology type
For the lowest cost technologies, we consider how the cost structure will probably not be on a per tag basis, where the value of the tags in hundreds of billions is only a few million dollars, but those involved will make money on licensing the technology, readers, data management etc. This is similar to barcodes today - the money spent on barcodes is negligible unlike when they were first invented and applied as a separate label.
 
Source: IDTechEx
What you will learn
  • The world's only in depth report covering printed and chipless RFID technologies and companies
  • Detailed market forecasts by printed and chipless technology from 2007 to 2017 available only from IDTechEx
  • Analysis of the technologies being implemented today
  • Detailed case histories and company profiles of the many trials and sales successes of chipless RFID
  • Sales leads and opportunities
  • Unbiased assessment of who will be the winners and losers in the shakeout and what the future will bring
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In addition, the report price also includes free access to the electronic version of the IDTechEx Encyclopedia of Printed Electronics 2007 with over 380 definitions and 30 illustrations. This 110 page report is normally sold for $1500.00.
Further information
If you have any questions about this report, please do not hesitate to contact Corinne Jennings or call + 44 1223 813703.
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.INTRODUCTION
1.1.Roadmap for RFID 2008-2018
1.2.What are printed and chipless RFID tags?
1.3.Why are they needed in supply chains?
1.3.1.Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG)
1.3.2.Pharmaceuticals
1.4.Where else will chipless RFID be needed?
1.4.1.Ubiquitous Sensor Networks
1.4.2.Self adjusting use by date
1.4.3.Assets
1.4.4.Laundry and rented garments
1.4.5.Books at manufacture
1.4.6.Postal items
1.4.7.Conveyances, logistics, traffic management
1.5.Silicon chips and EPCglobal
1.5.1.Shortcomings of silicon chip RFID
1.5.2.Shortcomings of Gen2 EPC - universality by tag complexity
1.5.3.Robustness of the layered approach backed by EPCglobal
1.5.4.Implications
1.6.Constraints on market growth
1.6.1.Impediments to highest volume RFID
1.7.Ultimate potential
1.7.1.Potential for different applications
1.7.2.Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes
1.7.3.Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve)
2.PRINTED AND CHIPLESS RFID TECHNOLOGIES
2.2.Comparison - first generation
2.3.Commercial successes
2.3.1.Acoustomagnetic tags - error prevention
2.3.2.SAW tags - X-CYTE, MicroDesign, iRay Technologies, Thoronics, CTR
2.4.HID Barkhausen cards - secure access
2.5.Lessons from the limited success or failure of other approaches
2.6.Electromagnetic - Flying Null, Link-Sure, Confirm Technologies, REMOSO, Holotag, Zebra Technologies, Scipher TSSI, MXT, Fuji Electric, Unitika
2.7.Swept RF LC array - Miyake, Lintec, CWOSRFID, Navitas, Checkpoint, Tagsense, RFCode
3.SECOND GENERATION CHIPLESS RFID - POTENTIALLY OPEN SYSTEMS
3.1.The main contenders compared
3.2.Electromagnetic conductive ink stripe RFID - Mreal, VTT, Panipol, ACREO, Somark Innovations, Menippos, Printed Systems
3.2.1.New ink stripe format
3.2.2.Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon
3.2.3.Market thrust
3.2.4.Technical development
3.2.5.The Somark Innovations product new in 2006
3.2.6.The Mreal/ VTT Technologies/ Panipol product
3.2.7.ACREO
3.2.8.Menippos and Printed Systems GmbH
3.3.Printed radar arrays, InkSure and Vubiq
3.3.1.Inksure
3.3.2.Vubiq
3.4.Surface Acoustic Wave - RFSAW, Thoronics
3.4.1.Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon
3.4.2.Market thrust
3.4.3.Technical development
3.4.4.SAW Standards EPCglobal
3.4.5.Companies seeking SAW open systems - RFSAW, IBM Global Services, Thoronics
3.4.6.IBM Global Services success in 2006/2007
3.4.7.RFID location with passive tags
3.4.8.Case study: Highway non-stop tolling USA - RFSAW
3.5.Thin Film Transistor Circuits (TFTCs)
3.6.Other
3.6.1.How to Eat RFID
3.7.Lowest cost antenna design
3.7.1.Choice of electrodes and interconnects
4.THIN FILM TRANSISTOR CIRCUITS (TFTCS)
4.1.Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon
4.1.1.TFTCs best suited for non-RFID applications in the short term?
4.1.2.A key limitation is frequency
4.1.3.Printed TFTC RFID cannot tackle UHF and microwave?
4.1.4.Low cost not guaranteed
4.2.Market thrust and technical progress
4.3.Opportunities for passive TFTC RFID labels
4.3.1.RFID printed directly on products and packaging
4.4.Opportunities for active TFTC RFID
4.5.TFTC value chain - companies change position
4.6.Technical development - geometry, carrier mobility, substrate
4.6.1.Transistor geometry or mobility?
4.6.2.The compromises in choosing substrates
4.7.Printed memory for RFID- HP, Ricoh, Matsushita, Thin Film Electronics, Motorola, Fuji Film and others
4.8.Thirty Three TFTC players compared - market thrust
4.9.Why TFTCs will be the biggest breakthrough in electronic smart packaging
4.10.Thin film silicon vs organics or inorganics
4.10.1.First came thin film silicon
4.10.2.Organic semiconductors - two choices
4.10.3.PolyIC developments
4.10.4.Dai Nippon Printing semiconductor development
4.10.5.Power conservation - CMOS
4.10.6.Progress towards flexible/biodegradable substrates for organic TFTs
4.11.Wild card - inorganic semiconductors
4.12.Game-changing breakthrough from Kovio in 2007
5.DISPLAYS AND SENSORS FOR CHIPLESS RFID
5.1.Choice of displays
5.2.Choice of sensors
6.MARKETS FOR CHIPLESS RFID 2008-2018
6.1.Historical sales of chipless tags
6.1.2.Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
6.2.Chipless share of RFID market by numbers 2008-2018
6.3.Proportion for CPG 2008-2018
6.4.Chipless RFID by technology 2008-2018
6.5.Unit price trends by chipless technology 2008-2018
6.6.Chipless share of total RFID market value 2008-2018
6.7.Chipless vs chip share of total RFID market by value 2008-2018
6.8.RFID market by system component 2008-2018
6.9.RFID market by location of tag 2008-2018 and chipless targets
6.10.Move of markets to East Asia 2008, 2013, 2018
6.11.Market for EPC and other interrogators 2008-2018
6.12.Ultra low cost RFID labels - market size
6.13.RFID printed directly onto products and packaging - market size
6.14.Low cost active RFID - market size
6.15.Radiation tolerant RFID - market size
6.16.Fault tolerant RFID - market size
6.17.Ultra thin low cost RFID - market size
6.18.Ubiquitous Sensor Networks - market size
6.19.Real Time Locating Systems (RTLS) - market size
7.TIMELINES FOR PRINTED AND CHIPLESS RFID MARKET PENETRATION
7.1.Timelines for human-related and product tagging
7.2.Timelines for developments in second generation chipless RFID
7.3.Timeline for printed RFID
7.4.Timeline for printed organic electronics
7.5.Timeline for direct printing of chipless RFID onto products and packaging
8.SUPPLIER AND DEVELOPER PROFILES
8.1.RFSAW USA
8.2.IBM USA
8.3.ACREO Sweden
8.4.M-real Sweden
8.5.VTT Technology Finland
8.6.Panipol Finland
8.7.Inksure
8.8.VubiQ
8.9.PolyIC and Siemens Germany
8.10.OrganicID USA
8.11.3M USA
8.12.Xerox/ PARC USA/ Canada
8.13.Plastic Logic UK
8.14.Toppan Printing Japan
8.15.Dai Nippon Printing Japan
8.16.Kovio USA
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS
APPENDIX 2: PRINCIPLES OF OPERATION OF FIRST GENERATION CHIPLESS RFID
APPENDIX 3 THE ASTRAZENECA - SCIENTIFIC GENERICS SUCCESS
APPENDIX 4 GLOSSARY
TABLES
1.1.Results achieved in studies of both cost reduction and increase in sales achievable with item level RFID in the supermarket.
1.2.The main impediments to highest volume RFID
1.3.Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2020 of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly.
1.4.Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2020 for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly.
2.1.Ten different types of chipless RFID technology
2.2.The ten types of first generation chipless RFID technologies compared.
2.3.Advantages and disadvantages of RFSAW devices
3.1.Comparison of the main contenders
3.2.Detailed comparison of second generation chipless options
3.3.Comparison of performance of conductive layers for RFID antennas in ohms per square meter
4.1.Envisaged benefits of TFTCs in RFID and other low-cost applications when compared with envisaged silicon chips
4.2.Typical features demanded of high volume RFID tags
4.3.Probable value split of the global passive RFID market, by value and numbers as a function of frequency, in 2012
4.4.Typical carrier mobility in different TFTC semiconductors (actual and envisaged). Single crystal silicon may have a figure of up to 1,000 cm2/vs but it is not currently envisaged as a TFTC material
4.5.Comparison of 33 TFTC players
4.6.Thirty three TFTC developers compared - technologies
4.7.Benefits of the best TFTCs versus very small silicon chips
5.1.Qualities of the various display options for chipless RFID
6.1.Historical sales of chipless RFID tags
6.2.Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to end of 2006 in millions
6.3.Deliveries of chipless tags to date by company
6.4.Overall global RFID market by numbers 2008-2018 with chipless and chip share
6.5.Split between chipless tags sold globally for CPG and those for other purposes 2008-2018 in billions
6.6.Sales in billions of the main types of chipless tag 2008-2018
6.7.Unit price in cents of the various types of chipless RFID 2008-2018
6.8.Market value of global sales of chipless tags by technology in billions of dollars 2008-2018
6.9.Chipless and chip share of the total global market for RFID tags 2008-2018
6.10.Total global RFID market 2008-2018 by value of tags, interrogators and other
6.11.Number (in millions) of tags by application 2008-2018
6.12.Average tag price per application in US cents 2008-2018
6.13.Value of tags by application 2008-2018 (US Dollar Millions)
6.14.Total spend on RFID systems, service and tags 2008, 2013, 2018 by territory
6.15.Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions
7.1.Timelines for developments in second generation chipless RFID
FIGURES
1.1.Malaysian project for Ubiquitous Sensor Networks etc
1.2.What is USN in Korea?
1.3.Korean program towards ubiquitous sensor enabled RFID 2004 to 2010 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo
1.4.The attributes of the main types of chipless tag compared with silicon chip alternatives
1.5.Layers of logistic units
1.7.The adoption curve 2004-2018
1.9.The overall price-volume sensitivity envelope
2.1.Principle of a SAW tag
2.2.SAW tag system
2.3.CTR heavy duty SAW RFID tag
3.1.Layout of the ACREO ink stripe RFID
3.2.Main Features of the M-real/ VTT technology HidE chipless RFID and IDTechEx portrayal of a typical format for conductive ink stripes on this product and the ACREO product about 1centimeter by six centimeters.
3.3.HidE hidden Electronic Product Code production roadmap
3.4.Potential applications of HidE ink stripe RFID
3.5.Strengths and weaknesses of HidE chipless RFID
3.6.Planned miniature SAW tag with 2.45 GHz dipole antenna
3.7.Options for interconnect, antenna and electrode materials to make high speed transistor circuits
4.1.Slides from PolyIC show their progress with printed TFTCs for RFID.
4.2.Requirements of organic electronics to the process
4.3.Requirements of organic electronics to the substrate
4.4.Comparison of PET - Surfaces
4.5.Possible film substrates
4.6.More possible film substrates
4.7.Paper as a substrate for organic electronics
4.8.Value chain for TFTCs and examples of migration of activity for players
4.9.Coplanar electrode thin film transistor
4.10.Options for semiconductor materials to make TFTCs on low-cost flexible substrates. Shown as a function of cost and frequency
4.11.Options for semiconductor materials to make TFTs on low-cost flexible substrates. Shown as a function of cost and frequency.
4.12.Options for high speed, low-cost printing of TFTCs
4.13.Evolving level of difficulty of substrates in creating low-cost TFTCs
4.14.Experimental PolyIC (formerly Siemens) 32-bit RFID smart label using printed polymer semiconductors
4.15.Basic setup and issues
4.16.Chemical structure of polymer FET
4.17.PolyIC integrated rectifier
4.18.Development of continuous printing methods by PolyIC
4.19.Printable organic semiconductors - the compromise.
4.20.Carrier transport in liquid crystal
4.21.Structural choices for printable semiconductors researched by DNP
4.22.Molecular design choices by DNP
4.23.How LC-OSC can be a good compromise.
5.1.Experimental printed flexible polymer OLED by Dai Nippon Printing
6.1.An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag
6.2.Dropping prices for RFID tags
6.3.Projections for Real Time Locating Systems 2007-2010
7.1.Evolution of RFID markets by applicational sector
7.2.PolyIC roadmap for printed RFID
7.3.PolyIC roadmap to success for printed organic RFID
7.4.DNP roadmap for plastic electronics

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